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Post by allday28 on Nov 23, 2022 16:57:24 GMT
This is an official vote to change the penalty card from Indianapolis (11 own vs 11 opp) to Washington (8 own vs 9 opp) starting in block 3.
Indy was the only 50/50 card so we blindly took it however vs our penalty card last year, it is a 22.2% increase (from 9/9 to 11/11). A number of coaches have noticed this uptick in penalties and expressed a desire to change. Washington's 8/9 penalty card is the closest card to 50/50 outside of the 11/11 cards. Please note as both coaches will utilize the card, the penalty odds will be the same for both teams.
NFL penalties were brought up so I gathered some stats for NFL penalties (2021) vs OFM penalties: NFL penalties per game: 11.7 OFM penalties per game: 14.0 (OFM +19.5%) NFL penalty chance per play: 7.6% OFM penalty chance per play: 11.4% (OFM +50%!)
I will start the voting with a yes.
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Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2022 17:06:54 GMT
YES
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Post by pbisiules on Nov 23, 2022 19:38:17 GMT
Yes, I support this in-season change
Steelers have experienced 42 penalties for 345yds over 5 games while my opponents had 28 penalties for 231yds. Definitely have noticed an uptick in penalties (and many taking points off the board). In some games, I've experienced at least 3 consecutive plays with penalties.
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Post by John on Nov 24, 2022 2:27:57 GMT
While I usually oppose in-season changes, this makes sense and effects everyone equally.
Yes.
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Nov 24, 2022 11:01:12 GMT
I vote no
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Post by Ryan D (Ravens & Redskins) on Nov 24, 2022 16:33:36 GMT
Yes
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Nov 25, 2022 5:34:06 GMT
Where did you get your NFL penalty data for 2021?
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Post by allday28 on Nov 25, 2022 16:01:47 GMT
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Nov 25, 2022 21:53:58 GMT
The mean penalty hits for all 32 teams that SOM carded is 19.875. If we are going to consider changing it, the 2 teams that are closest are the Bears and Eagles. They are both 20. Washington at 17 hits is far too low.
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Nov 25, 2022 23:57:16 GMT
While taking a closer look at our penalty card we shouldn't be using net zero penalty cards. Last year in the NFL the Offense had 1887 (58.57%) penalties called against them. The Defense had 1335 (41.43%) called against them. Due to the fact all penalty rolls are based on the Offensive roll, we should be using a negative card against the Offense. www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/penalties.htm
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Post by Jets and Chargers on Nov 26, 2022 1:51:01 GMT
Pat -- I am unaware of any way to choose a penalty card that has more penalties against the offense.
Last year the stock team penalty cards averaged 8.78 / 8.84.
This year the stock team penalty cards average 9.875 / 10
This year "should" have more penalties (if we use league "average" penalty cards as we decided when we switched to computer play and the generic defense cards). A reasonable argument can be made that we should round down and not up. We are currently using 11/11 penalty cards. We could use 10/9 or 9/10 and still be league "average."
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Post by allday28 on Nov 27, 2022 2:33:09 GMT
The mean penalty hits for all 32 teams that SOM carded is 19.875. If we are going to consider changing it, the 2 teams that are closest are the Bears and Eagles. They are both 20. Washington at 17 hits is far too low. Buffalo hit at 22 (+2.125) for 50% of the games. So the option is more penalties with the Bears and Eagles (+0.125) vs attempting to balance with Washington (-2.875).
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Post by mstucchi (Packers) on Nov 27, 2022 3:39:03 GMT
I vote yes.
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Nov 29, 2022 2:30:32 GMT
Abstain.
Buffalo may have been the wrong card (Too many penalties) but Washington is not right either (Too few penalties). If we make a change mid-season, i'm not looking for balance, i'm looking for the card that best represents the average amount of penalties called in a 2021 NFL game.
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Post by allday28 on Nov 29, 2022 4:53:34 GMT
Abstain. Buffalo may have been the wrong card (Too many penalties) but Washington is not right either (Too few penalties). If we make a change mid-season, i'm not looking for balance, i'm looking for the card that best represents the average amount of penalties called in a 2021 NFL game. Buffalo (22/36) has resulted in +19.5% penalties per game vs 2021 NFL. Let's take numbers alone and no names to get to 0.00% vs 2021 NFL penalties: 21/36 = -4.5% compared to 22. 19.5% - 4.5% = +15% more than 2021 NFL 20/36 = -9.1% compared to 22. 19.5% - 9.1% = +10.4% more than 2021 NFL 19/36 = -13.6% compared to 22. 19.5% - 13.6% = +5.9% more than 2021 NFL 18/36 = -18.2% compared to 22. 19.5% - 18.2% = +1.3% more than 2021 NFL 17/36 = -22.7% compared to 22. 19.5% - 22.7% = -3.2% less than 2021 NFL 17 and 18 appear to be the best options to replicate penalties per game, but this is skewed because OFM runs considerably fewer plays per game than the NFL. When you consider penalties per play, OFM is +50% meaning we would need an 11/36 to match the 2021 NFL penalties per play with the same math above. So let's strictly look at the per play math and not OFM per play actual results (11.4%). 2021 NFL penalty chance per play: 7.6% and here is the per play strat-o-matic math: 22/36: 1/6*(22/36) = 10.2% 21/36: 1/6*(21/36) = 9.7% 20/36: 1/6*(20/36) = 9.3% 19/36: 1/6*(19/36) = 8.8% 18/36: 1/6*(18/36) = 8.3% 17/36: 1/6*(17/36) = 7.9% 16/36: 1/6*(16/36) = 7.4% 16 is the best option to replicate penalties per play. However, there is no 16/36 penalty card. 17 is the next closest. Please note that in the prior comment we were comparing Washington and Buffalo to the strat-o average, NOT the NFL.
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