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Post by huntleybrian8 on Nov 29, 2022 13:33:18 GMT
For me, I’m not looking to average it out, I’m looking to choose the card set that should have been used from the beginning to best emulate NFL penalty results.
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Post by allday28 on Nov 29, 2022 14:04:17 GMT
For me, I’m not looking to average it out, I’m looking to choose the card set that should have been used from the beginning to best emulate NFL penalty results. 16/36 is the closest mathematical comp to the 2021 NFL season. |
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Nov 29, 2022 16:13:18 GMT
For me, I’m not looking to average it out, I’m looking to choose the card set that should have been used from the beginning to best emulate NFL penalty results. 16/36 is the closest mathematical comp to the 2021 NFL season. Not according to SOM. 19.875 is the mean. 20 is the median. |
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Nov 29, 2022 16:27:09 GMT
Abstain. Buffalo may have been the wrong card (Too many penalties) but Washington is not right either (Too few penalties). If we make a change mid-season, i'm not looking for balance, i'm looking for the card that best represents the average amount of penalties called in a 2021 NFL game. Buffalo (22/36) has resulted in +19.5% penalties per game vs 2021 NFL. Let's take numbers alone and no names to get to 0.00% vs 2021 NFL penalties: 21/36 = -4.5% compared to 22. 19.5% - 4.5% = +15% more than 2021 NFL 20/36 = -9.1% compared to 22. 19.5% - 9.1% = +10.4% more than 2021 NFL 19/36 = -13.6% compared to 22. 19.5% - 13.6% = +5.9% more than 2021 NFL 18/36 = -18.2% compared to 22. 19.5% - 18.2% = +1.3% more than 2021 NFL 17/36 = -22.7% compared to 22. 19.5% - 22.7% = -3.2% less than 2021 NFL 17 and 18 appear to be the best options to replicate penalties per game, but this is skewed because OFM runs considerably fewer plays per game than the NFL. When you consider penalties per play, OFM is +50% meaning we would need an 11/36 to match the 2021 NFL penalties per play with the same math above. So let's strictly look at the per play math and not OFM per play actual results (11.4%). 2021 NFL penalty chance per play: 7.6% and here is the per play strat-o-matic math: 22/36: 1/6*(22/36) = 10.2% 21/36: 1/6*(21/36) = 9.7% 20/36: 1/6*(20/36) = 9.3% 19/36: 1/6*(19/36) = 8.8% 18/36: 1/6*(18/36) = 8.3% 17/36: 1/6*(17/36) = 7.9% 16/36: 1/6*(16/36) = 7.4% 16 is the best option to replicate penalties per play. However, there is no 16/36 penalty card. 17 is the next closest. Please note that in the prior comment we were comparing Washington and Buffalo to the strat-o average, NOT the NFL. NFL plays per game last season 63.3 we are at 61.19 less then 2 plays a game difference |
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Nov 29, 2022 16:42:58 GMT
The NFL penalties per play was 7.6% on accepted penalties.
The NFL penalties per play was 8.899% when using accepted as well as declined and offsetting.
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Post by allday28 on Nov 29, 2022 17:11:12 GMT
16/36 is the closest mathematical comp to the 2021 NFL season. Not according to SOM. 19.875 is the mean. 20 is the median. I clarified in my post I was talking about NFL numbers as that is what Brian requested. |
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Post by allday28 on Nov 29, 2022 17:23:07 GMT
Buffalo (22/36) has resulted in +19.5% penalties per game vs 2021 NFL. Let's take numbers alone and no names to get to 0.00% vs 2021 NFL penalties: 21/36 = -4.5% compared to 22. 19.5% - 4.5% = +15% more than 2021 NFL 20/36 = -9.1% compared to 22. 19.5% - 9.1% = +10.4% more than 2021 NFL 19/36 = -13.6% compared to 22. 19.5% - 13.6% = +5.9% more than 2021 NFL 18/36 = -18.2% compared to 22. 19.5% - 18.2% = +1.3% more than 2021 NFL 17/36 = -22.7% compared to 22. 19.5% - 22.7% = -3.2% less than 2021 NFL 17 and 18 appear to be the best options to replicate penalties per game, but this is skewed because OFM runs considerably fewer plays per game than the NFL. When you consider penalties per play, OFM is +50% meaning we would need an 11/36 to match the 2021 NFL penalties per play with the same math above. So let's strictly look at the per play math and not OFM per play actual results (11.4%). 2021 NFL penalty chance per play: 7.6% and here is the per play strat-o-matic math: 22/36: 1/6*(22/36) = 10.2% 21/36: 1/6*(21/36) = 9.7% 20/36: 1/6*(20/36) = 9.3% 19/36: 1/6*(19/36) = 8.8% 18/36: 1/6*(18/36) = 8.3% 17/36: 1/6*(17/36) = 7.9% 16/36: 1/6*(16/36) = 7.4% 16 is the best option to replicate penalties per play. However, there is no 16/36 penalty card. 17 is the next closest. Please note that in the prior comment we were comparing Washington and Buffalo to the strat-o average, NOT the NFL. NFL plays per game last season 63.3 we are at 61.19 less then 2 plays a game difference Then my per game numbers must have some error because if the plays per game are that close then the penalties per play difference should mirror the per game numbers. |
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Post by allday28 on Nov 29, 2022 17:40:50 GMT
The NFL penalties per play was 7.6% on accepted penalties. The NFL penalties per play was 8.899% when using accepted as well as declined and offsetting. This is a good point and 8.9% almost perfectly aligns with a 19/36 card. Do we know what percentage is offsetting on the card? Although that’s probably splitting too many hairs |
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Nov 29, 2022 18:00:17 GMT
When you subtract the offsetting, it becomes
1/6*(19/35) = 9.05%
1/6*(18/35) = 8.57%
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Post by lugoboss on Dec 1, 2022 4:41:38 GMT
After another game with multiple game changing penalties I am for changing penalty cards mid season. This is getting out of hand the amount of penalties i am seeing and the back to back penalties i continuously see. Today in patriots win over the Lions it was 6/46 on the patriots and 9/69 for the Lions (Lions would have had 10/79 but a penalty was declined.) So with all the mathematical odds everyone is speaking of the current cards need to be changed and all you math geniuses need to pick a set we can all vote on that will lower the excessive amount of penalties in these games.
p.s. I appreciate everyone who is taking the time to put out the averages to help make this decision so much easier.
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Post by Admin on Dec 1, 2022 22:59:05 GMT
I vote no. Keep current team penalty card.
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Dec 2, 2022 14:46:33 GMT
Average accepted penalties per game in 2021.
Highest-Dallas (7.47)
Middle-Jacksonville (6.11)
Lowest-Green Bay (4.05)
Ours-Buffalo (6.65)
Keep in mind none of the above really means anything because the randomization of rolls can be skewed one way or another over short periods of time. As of now, were using a short period of time (4 games per team) to start this discussion.
Total penalties in Jaguars games have went like this;
19
11
13
16
20
It's an average of an accepted penalty of every 8.17 plays (621 total plays) and 15.8 per game being accepted. Higher than the expected amount of 13.3 to be accepted.
Patriots games have gone like this;
14
15
12
14
15
17
It's an average of an accepted penalty of every 8.89 plays (773 total plays). Patriots 12.8 accepted per game. Lower than the expected amount of 13.3
In my mind this doesn't seem crazy far off. I think for some people it's more of a mental challenge due to timing of penalties or dislike of penalties altogether. It's the same argument for injuries. Some teams have more, some less and those with more don't like it.
I'm not sure whether there's a right or wrong answer here, but i'm pretty confident that changing to Washington mid season is too extreme the other way.
Our full goal of this discussion really should be how do we determine what type of card to use next year. In my world I just simplify it and use the team ranked 16th in total penalties called per game or play.
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Post by Jets and Chargers on Dec 2, 2022 17:33:11 GMT
I think the "actual" game results misses the point.
The card chosen has 22 penalty chances (11/11). As a league, we agreed to use the "average" penalty card as determined by totaling all offensive penalties and all defensive penalties and dividing each by 32. This season's result is (9.875/10). Pat selected an 11/11 card. I view this as a mistake that should be corrected (as opposed to a rules change that would take affect the following season).
If we round up there are two cards with 20 chances: Chicago and Philly (11/9)
If we round down there are five cards with 19 chances: Minny (11/8), SFN (10/9), Sea (11/8), Bal (9/10), Denver (8/11)
For those that agree that the change should be made, do you prefer to round down or round up? Once this is determined we will pick a team.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2022 17:55:28 GMT
ROUND DOWN
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Post by Ryan D (Ravens & Redskins) on Dec 2, 2022 18:16:24 GMT
Round down
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