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Post by huntleybrian8 on Aug 28, 2017 13:44:35 GMT
Gentleman,
Please review the following proposal on how to calculate the distance of a punt out of bounds. This is the way it is calculated in the computer game and is far more realistic than our current version where the kicking coach is calculating the exact distance to subtract from the kick.
PUNT OUT OF BOUNDS
1) Announce that you are punting out of bounds.
2) After rolling for the punt and determining the initial punt distance, roll all 4 dice. Add the 3 main dice together and subtract this distance from the punt giving the adjusted punt distance. If the 4th die is a 6, then the punt stays in-bounds and it may be returned. Any roll of 1-5 on the 4th die and the punt has gone out of bounds.
EXAMPLE:
Say the ball is on the defensive 35-yard line and a punt out of bounds is attempted. The initial roll indicates a punt of 43 yards to the #1 Back. Do not attempt a punt return yet. Instead, roll all 4 dice. Let’s say the 4th die was rolled was 1-5 along with a white three and two red sixes. 3+6+6 = 15 (this is the yardage to subtract from the initial punt distance). 43-15 = 28. Therefore, this is a 28-yard punt that goes out of bounds. Had the 4t die been a 6 then the ball would not have gone out of bounds and the number one punt returner could have elected to try and return it.
This can be used anywhere on the field by the kicking coach. Again, This is only a small variance from what we are currently doing and it's primary purpose is to take out the calculated math element of the kick by the kicking coach.
I vote YES for the upcoming season.
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Post by allday28 on Aug 28, 2017 16:49:24 GMT
I vote yes as well
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Post by John on Aug 28, 2017 21:17:38 GMT
This rule has no adjustment for the punter. He basically has 2 speeds. Full and minus an average of 10.5 yards. In most cases this is fine but sometimes you may want to take more off the punt distance.
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Post by Admin on Aug 28, 2017 21:59:21 GMT
We have changed the let it bounce chart. I am with John on this and see no reason to change. I vote no.
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Aug 29, 2017 0:06:40 GMT
The let it bounce chart has nothing to do with the ability to kick out of bounds. The let it bounce chart is for the returning team only. That's a defensive posture for the receiving team and the punt out of bounds is for the kicking team. As far as the rule having no adjustment for the punter, not sure what you mean. Punters do not know exactly how far they can or cannot kick the ball when kicking out of bounds. This makes the adjustment random from 3-18 yards. No exact calculations, you know just like the real NFL. Punters don't kick the ball and go, oh yeah, i've decided to kick that one 13 yards less than I normally do.
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Post by Jets and Chargers on Aug 29, 2017 2:39:19 GMT
I am undecided. Why I like the proposal: Currently, if the likely return is greater than 10 yards the punting team should always punt out of bounds and effectively take a good returner out of the game. If the yardage is variable, maybe they punt straight more often.
Why I dislike: I disagree with Brian's notion that punter's can't pinpoint the kick. When we were young, the rule for a punt returner used to be "put your feet on the 10" and if it is over you head let it go. Nowadays, the returner will Fair catch the ball at the 7 or 5. I can only guess that they are coached this way -- probably because the punters are so good.
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Aug 29, 2017 14:42:26 GMT
1) You see this occur in higher levels of football all the time. Directional kicking and punting are a bigger strategy in the game now. That being said, it's still not done with the complete accuracy we have the ability to calculate for.
2) See #1. Kickers and Punters are definitely more skilled, but not to the point where random factors are removed. There are some studies out there about the fielding of punts inside the 10. Some say it's OK, Some say it's not, but this proposal is not designed to just be addressing punts inside the 10. We addressed that with the let it bounce rules where we had a grossly higher percenatge of touchbacks than what was realistic.
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Post by Jets and Chargers on Aug 29, 2017 15:18:18 GMT
Regarding #2 -- if you kick it out of bounds inside the 10 the "let it bounce" chart doesn't come in to effect. I feel like that if we have the new let it bounce rule and this greater variability on taking yards off of a kick we will have unrealistically low chances of pinning a team within the 10.
Thoughts?
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Post by allday28 on Aug 29, 2017 19:22:56 GMT
It is far too easy to kick OB currently. In 2016 there were 382 punts that occurred between an opponents 35 and the 50 yard line. Of those 382 punts, just 27 went OB or 7.07%. The NFL employs punters who can kick it deep, not kickers who can coffin punt the best.
Real stats:
Punts between 50 and opponent 35: 382
Punts that went OB: 27 (7.07%)
Touchbacks: 70 (18.32%)
Average OB yard line: 14.48
OB inside 10 yard line: 7 (1.83%)
OB inside 15 yard line: 14 (3.66%)
OB inside 20 yard line: 23 (6.02%)
Punts between own 40 and 49: 456
Punts that went OB: 40 (8.77%)
Touchbacks: 60 (13.15%)
Average OB yard line: 15.30
OB inside 10 yard line: 8 (1.75%)
OB inside 15 yard line: 20 (4.39%)
OB inside 20 yard line: 28 (6.14%)
As far as I am concerned, we are far too loose with OB punts. If lessening the yards allows the league to be more in line with the NFL then that is the route I will support. Punters are NOT good at kicking it OB. If they were, then the NFL would not have seen 92.93% and 91.23% land IN bounds in the two scenarios above.
2016 Punts from own 40 to opponent 35: 838
Punts that went OB: 67 (8.00%)
Punts that were IB: 771 (92.00%)
I will vote to approve anything that disincentives punting OB since finding a way to limit success to anywhere near 8% seems unlikely to ever pass.
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Post by Jets and Chargers on Aug 29, 2017 19:43:30 GMT
Tony -- great work -- but a quick follow up. I believe the kicking out of bounds (OOB) is akin to a "Fair Catch." The next stat is what percentage of punts between the 50 and opponent 35 that are inbounds are actually returned. It seems like these are routine fair catches. Rightly or wrongly, I have always likened the OOB kick to a fair catch. If we don't kick OOB we will have a lot of returns. Which is more realistic? A lot of returns or punts that cannot be returned?
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Post by allday28 on Aug 29, 2017 21:10:09 GMT
Punts between 50 and opponent 35: 382
OB: 27 (7.07%)
Fair caught: 165 (43.19%)
Touchbacks: 70 (18.32%)
Returnable: 120 (31.41%)
Punts between own 40 and 49: 456
OB: 40 (8.77%)
Fair caught: 174 (38.16)
Touchbacks: 60 (13.15%)
Returnable: 182 (39.91%)
Punts from own 40 to opponent 35: 838
OB: 67 (8.00%)
Fair caught: 339 (40.45%)
Touchbacks: 130 (15.51%)
Returnable: 302 (36.04%)
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Aug 29, 2017 22:44:43 GMT
The fair catch argument isn't the same as kicking out of bounds.
You cannot fumble or muff a kick out of bounds unless it stays in bound and you choose to then try and return it. To address Anthony's portion, teams don't kick out of bounds more often in the NFL because it is IMPOSSIBLE to calculate exactly how far it will travel before it's ruled out of bounds, Thus the argument for the OOB kick yardage to be completely random, which is what this proposal is all about.
We can kick OOB anytime we like now, all this is doing is making the subtracted yardage random instead of being automatically determined by the kicking coach. It effects nothing else other than that.
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2017 1:47:31 GMT
I vote Yes
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Post by Ryan D (Ravens & Redskins) on Aug 30, 2017 1:50:54 GMT
yes
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Aug 30, 2017 2:05:28 GMT
I vote yes
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