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Post by John on Mar 10, 2018 2:29:11 GMT
How about making the block on a 2 with a 4,5,6 on the third die?
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Mar 10, 2018 2:51:38 GMT
I'd like to see the block on a missed vs a made kick.
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Post by John on Mar 10, 2018 3:02:41 GMT
We could take the hit or miss out of it. Block if both 3rd & 4th die are a 1.
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Mar 10, 2018 12:26:34 GMT
I believe there should be an opportunity for a penalty on a block.
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Mar 10, 2018 16:48:03 GMT
So here is a classic example of overthinking the way an SOM rule reads and unecessarily complicating it.
Let's think about it this way. Regardless of whether the kick is a punt, FG or XP, the math really doesn't need to change. As the SOM rule reads there would be a 1 in 216 chance of blocking any kick. Just because a kickers FG or XP accuracy is lower does not mean he has a higher propensity to have a kick blocked. It just means they miss more often.
Clearly if there is a flaw in the SOM system with blocked kicks, it's that there doesn't appear to be any higher risk of penalty in trying to block a kick, just a reduction in the potentail ability to return a punt. For me personally, i'm ok with that. I'm very sure there are no actual statistics available to determine whether there are actually more penalties that occur if a team is trying to block a kick, so we'd just be making it up based on our own individual perceptions.
For what it's worth, there were only 11 punts in over 2500 attempts that resulted ina blocked punt. In 2016 there were only 21 field goals blocked. without doing all the actual math, it appeared the average team attempted about 35 FG's so the block rate was a bit more than 1% and my guess is most blocks occurred on longer attempts. Likely even less on XP's
So how about we doing something new and just incorporate the blocked kick rule into the 2018 season without altering it and see how it works? The probability of this occurring is so low anyway makes this a minor part of our game but if for some reason we see some really skewed results, then we can address revisiting rewriting the SOM rule.
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Post by John on Mar 10, 2018 20:59:14 GMT
We could make it blocked if 3rd die 6 and 4th die 6. Running into the kicker and roughing the kicker are ignored per Strat rule and most offensive penalties will be declined. Leaving false starts and defense offsides so even though every blocked field goal or extra point would result in checking for a penalty, very few would be enforced.
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Post by John on Mar 10, 2018 21:06:19 GMT
I got that wrong. Running into and roughing the kicker are ignored if not trying to block but should be ignored if the block is successful per NFL rules.
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Post by John on Mar 10, 2018 23:22:47 GMT
The Strat computer rule regarding attempted blocking of field goals and extra points is poorly thought out and a sucker bet. If a kicker missed on a “12” roll at a particular range, attempting to block has NO effect on the percentage chance for a kick to be good. It does however increase the chance of a running into or roughing the kicker penalty vs not attempting to block.
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Mar 11, 2018 14:23:52 GMT
Why should it have an effect on the kick to be good?
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Post by John on Mar 11, 2018 17:29:07 GMT
What is the point of trying to block a field goal or extra point if there is no difference to the chance of a good kick? What I am suggesting is basically the computer rule except checking the 3rd & 4th dice for a successful block instead of the 1 st & 2nd dice.
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Post by Pat Hoglund on Mar 11, 2018 19:41:21 GMT
What is the point of trying to block a field goal or extra point if there is no difference to the chance of a good kick? What I am suggesting is basically the computer rule except checking the 3rd & 4th dice for a successful block instead of the 1 st & 2nd dice. As a coach you have the option of trying to Block a kick or not. The reason you try to block it is to be able to recover and advance the loose ball. I believe that SOM got it wrong and we shouldn't have a made FG/XP become a miss because of the block rule. No matter how small the percentage. The rule has all FG/XP that are missed on 12 blocked if you roll a 12 (regardless of the white die). For Kickers that are good on a 12 we should look at the next lowest chance that is missed. In my earlier post I suggested the way to use every kickers highest miss and have the chances be equal. We should not alter the made/miss percentage that start has already computed. As far as percentages go there were 22 blocks in 1004 FG attempts (2.19%) The odds of rolling a 12 are 2.78% which is as close as you can get with 2 die. Using the kickers that are good on a 12 we can use their highest miss and by cutting the chances in 1/2 or 1/3 it is mathematically the same.
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Post by John on Mar 11, 2018 20:58:16 GMT
I understand your reasoning but disagree. The odds of blocking a kick, recovering the ball, and fumbling it back to the kicking team is 50% higher than getting a long gain off a recovery. The #1 reason for trying to block a field goal or extra point is to prevent a score. I do like the punt block rule.
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Mar 11, 2018 22:05:03 GMT
I'm not sure the percenatge of possibly fumbling even matters whether you block the kick. Aren't the return charts the same for any type of blocked kick as they are for fumbles? If you fumble an extra point return, they don't get another XP attempt. You could always block the kick, recover the kick and choose not to return it if you're that afraid of the fumble roll. Or of course you could just choose not to try and block the kick as well.
Another item to clarify for me is if the punter already has a block on the card, do you need to attempt to block the punt to actually have it happen? If he has a block and the defense is not attempting to block the punt and the block comes up on the card, what occurs then?
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Post by John on Mar 11, 2018 22:36:59 GMT
The punt block on the card is ignored if the defense does not attempt to block. Reroll the punt. The thing I really like about the rule is that you can’t be penalized for running into or roughing the punter if you are not attempting to block.
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Post by huntleybrian8 on Mar 12, 2018 0:11:45 GMT
Yep. I agree.
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