Post by mstucchi (Packers) on Dec 4, 2022 18:35:55 GMT
I'm new to this league and I just wanted to mention this regarding fumbles. I'm not proposing any changes, just wanted to spread this Strat Football information.
Here is the Strat Football help on "Use Individualized Fumble Ratings":
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Use Individualized Fumble Ratings: If you select this check box then an alternate (computer only) fumble system will be utilized. The original (card based) fumble system in Strat-O-Matic Football is more of a team concept that ensures that teams lose approximately as many fumbles as they did in real-life. The Individualized Fumble system tries to recreate the number of fumbles made by each RB and QB, however it is based upon total fumbles - not fumbles lost. Additionally, the individualized fumble ratings do not affect Wide Receivers because there is insufficient data available to identify actual receiving fumble totals for them throughout football history. So Wide Receiver fumbles (which represent a very small number compared to the overall total) are always based upon their team rating. Generally speaking people who are in draft leagues will definitely want to use the Individualized Fumble Ratings while those replaying seasons can choose between either system.
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Currently, OFM is using carded fumbles. Carded fumbles are used when you play stock teams. 2021 NE vs 2021 GB. The fumbles by the running backs on the teams have been carded into the game, and the defensive fumbles are also carded into the game. That is why AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones will have the same looking fumble numbers on 5 rolls. A team like 2021 Tennessee defense which caused very few fumbles will have no chance to cause a fumble using carded fumbles.
Here is an example of Aaron Jones wrong run. .33% fumble chance
RUN FUMBLE RAND(1,1000): 461
RUN FUMBLE CHECK A.JONES: 3.3 VS. 461
Here is an example of Aaron Jones right run. .61% fumble chance
Jones, Aaron 1.17%
Here is the Strat Football help on "Use Individualized Fumble Ratings":
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Use Individualized Fumble Ratings: If you select this check box then an alternate (computer only) fumble system will be utilized. The original (card based) fumble system in Strat-O-Matic Football is more of a team concept that ensures that teams lose approximately as many fumbles as they did in real-life. The Individualized Fumble system tries to recreate the number of fumbles made by each RB and QB, however it is based upon total fumbles - not fumbles lost. Additionally, the individualized fumble ratings do not affect Wide Receivers because there is insufficient data available to identify actual receiving fumble totals for them throughout football history. So Wide Receiver fumbles (which represent a very small number compared to the overall total) are always based upon their team rating. Generally speaking people who are in draft leagues will definitely want to use the Individualized Fumble Ratings while those replaying seasons can choose between either system.
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Currently, OFM is using carded fumbles. Carded fumbles are used when you play stock teams. 2021 NE vs 2021 GB. The fumbles by the running backs on the teams have been carded into the game, and the defensive fumbles are also carded into the game. That is why AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones will have the same looking fumble numbers on 5 rolls. A team like 2021 Tennessee defense which caused very few fumbles will have no chance to cause a fumble using carded fumbles.
Strat introduced individualized fumbles for draft leagues to take into consideration each individual RB fumble chance into consideration. If you look at the rules in a league there is a setting "Use Individualized fumble ratings". This takes into account the individual RB fumbles. There is a 1/1000 rating each player gets. This fumble rating approximately doubles if the D calls run successfully, and approximately quadruples on a successful key. The Strat Ratings disk will tell you the individualized fumble percentage for each player. There are no fumbles carded into the defensive cards. Only the RB's fumbles are considered when we use "Use Individualized fumble ratings".
Here is an example of Aaron Jones wrong run. .33% fumble chance
RUN FUMBLE RAND(1,1000): 461
RUN FUMBLE CHECK A.JONES: 3.3 VS. 461
Here is an example of Aaron Jones right run. .61% fumble chance
RUN FUMBLE RAND(1,1000): 299
RUN FUMBLE CHECK A.JONES: 6.1 VS. 299
RUN FUMBLE CHECK A.JONES: 6.1 VS. 299
Here is an example of Aaron Jones keyed right run. 1.24% fumble chance
RUN FUMBLE RAND(1,1000): 229
RUN FUMBLE CHECK A.JONES: 12.4 VS. 229
RUN FUMBLE CHECK A.JONES: 12.4 VS. 229
There is also another fumble that gets individualized for the Quarterbacks. It's called a snap fumble. Each snap can be fumbled and based on the QB snap fumble rating. It's also based on 1/1000 rating each player.
In 2021 these were some QB's snap ratings I looked up.
Brady, Rodgers, Bridgewater is 1/1000, Wentz 2/1000, Mahomes 3/1000, Tua 4/1000, Murray 8/1000, Prescott 10/1000.
Here are some individualized fumble ratings. This % was taken by dividing fumbles by carries for the 2021 season. As you can see, the % here doesn't exactly match what we see in Aaron Jones.
All players will at least have a 3/1000 fumble on wrong runs and 6/1000 fumble on right runs, 12/1000 on successful keyed runs. Even if they never fumbled like Elijah Mitchell, Hunt, Howard, etc.
In 2021 these were some QB's snap ratings I looked up.
Brady, Rodgers, Bridgewater is 1/1000, Wentz 2/1000, Mahomes 3/1000, Tua 4/1000, Murray 8/1000, Prescott 10/1000.
Here are some individualized fumble ratings. This % was taken by dividing fumbles by carries for the 2021 season. As you can see, the % here doesn't exactly match what we see in Aaron Jones.
All players will at least have a 3/1000 fumble on wrong runs and 6/1000 fumble on right runs, 12/1000 on successful keyed runs. Even if they never fumbled like Elijah Mitchell, Hunt, Howard, etc.
Jones, Aaron 1.17%
Taylor, Jonathan 1.20%
Sanders, Miles 0.73%
Chubb, Nick 0.88%
Mitchell, Elijah 0.00%
Henry, Derrick 0.46%
Hunt, Kareem 0.00%
Cook, Dalvin 1.20%
Johnson, D'Ernest 0.00%
Harris, Damien 0.99%
Scott, Boston 1.15%
Howard, Jordan 0.00%
Conner, James 0.99%
Hines, Nyheim 5.36%
Penny, Rashaad 0.00%
Gordon, Melvin 1.48%
McCaffrey, Christian 1.01%
Hilliard, Dontrell 3.57%
Edmonds, Chase 0.86%
Freeman, Devonta 0.00%
Henderson Jr., Darrell 0.00%
Williams, Javonte 0.99%
Carter, Michael 0.68%
Robinson, James 2.44%
Sermon, Trey 0.00%
Stevenson, Rhamondre 1.50%
Samuel, Deebo 6.78%
Murray, Latavius 0.00%
If you have any questions let me know.
Thanks, Mike.
Green Bay Packers
Sanders, Miles 0.73%
Chubb, Nick 0.88%
Mitchell, Elijah 0.00%
Henry, Derrick 0.46%
Hunt, Kareem 0.00%
Cook, Dalvin 1.20%
Johnson, D'Ernest 0.00%
Harris, Damien 0.99%
Scott, Boston 1.15%
Howard, Jordan 0.00%
Conner, James 0.99%
Hines, Nyheim 5.36%
Penny, Rashaad 0.00%
Gordon, Melvin 1.48%
McCaffrey, Christian 1.01%
Hilliard, Dontrell 3.57%
Edmonds, Chase 0.86%
Freeman, Devonta 0.00%
Henderson Jr., Darrell 0.00%
Williams, Javonte 0.99%
Carter, Michael 0.68%
Robinson, James 2.44%
Sermon, Trey 0.00%
Stevenson, Rhamondre 1.50%
Samuel, Deebo 6.78%
Murray, Latavius 0.00%
If you have any questions let me know.
Thanks, Mike.
Green Bay Packers